TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says too much time has passed, too many institutions are out of cash.
When we say "too big to fail," what we mean is an entity that has so many tentacles in so many parts of the economic superstructure that if it failed, the consequences would be too grave for the system itself.
With the demise of Lehman, we at last see what it is like to have something too big to fail, fail. That's why you can see every insurer go down in the beat of an eyelash, or every broker roll over with lightning speed. It is how you could see commercial paper lines frozen and how you could expect money funds to crater and break the buck.
Lehman was twice as big as Bear and much more far-reaching. It was the other side of the trade, we are discovering, for myriad financial players. Its paper pervaded the system and was seemingly owned like U.S. government paper was. It was levered against and it was priceless collateral that is, well, priceless collateral. It did things with your margin account to gain you a return that reduced your cash to unsecured status.
In short, Lehman may bring down the Western financial world. That's right, it might. Almost everything you are seeing since Lehman's demise can be traced directly or indirectly to Lehman.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you're short, you don't want the bill passed. Let's look at that perspective.
First, let's make an important point: Nothing from Congress is going to make this market go up. We need the market go up because it is cheap and it attracts buyers, and because there are companies out there that are worth more than they are trading at -- perhaps as private companies, perhaps as investments right now, if anyone had cash and confidence.
Right now it seems there is neither. All we have are the futures, on stocks and on oil, and they bounce around and we do what they tell us at the start. Then the hedge funds come in and start selling because of their broken models and their redemptions. Then the short-sellers come in and figure out ways to knock down things. Then the rumors start about another bank failure and then we go down.
I want to break that spiral because I own stocks. If I am short stocks, I love the spiral.
Now, the bill in Congress does not break the spiral by any means. What breaks the spiral is a sense that the system is not falling apart, which it most certainly is.
Anything that could help break that spiral is encouraging. Consider that we had the equivalent of Pearl Harbor -- the collapse of so many banks -- and now we need an effective response, which must be massive and persuasive.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says everyone is worried that Goldman and Morgan will be safer but valued less and make less money.
It's hilarious that suddenly everyone is worried that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) (Cramer's Take) will be safer but will be valued less and make less money. It's almost as if they were to be valued as banks!
Wait a second, who pumps this stuff out? I am sure the stocks will go down simply because stocks go down on good news or bad news right now. But the kind of stuff I see written immediately is so typical of the misdirection of this period: The banks have twice the multiple of Goldman Sachs, for heaven's sake!
Why can't people see what is going on? Is it because things are moving so fast? Don't people see what is happening here? The market is saying that no investment bank can be trusted as a place to keep money because Lehman didn't refund the prime brokerage money that hedge fund managers had there!
That meant if you had prime brokerage money at Goldman Sachs, you needed it out. Goldman doesn't keep that kind of money on hand. No way. And the other firms had no desire to lend to Goldman. Why should they?
In the last year, Washington has been shoveling our tax dollars out the door to bail out the money mistakes of multi-billionaires.
It cut interest rates from 5.25% to 2% ,which sent inflation soaring, yet mortgage rates remain higher than they were a year ago. It spent $29 billion to finance the merger of Bear Stearns and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). And now it's about to spend as much as $800 billion to bailout a few huge investors who own mortgage-backed securities (MBS) issued by Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE).
I find the reasons why this latest bailout shouldn't happen to be far more compelling than the reasons it should. (Here's some background on the mortgage giants.)
Here are five reasons I think this bailout shouldn't happen:
Punishes the innocent and rewards the guilty. Why does it make sense for taxpayers -- most of whom are paying their mortgages on time and working hard to support their families despite declining real wages and higher costs -- be asked to dig into their pockets to clean up the errors of a few large institutional investors? Why not let the people who made the bad decisions pay for their own mistakes?
"So far, the financial sector has written off more than $300 million in assets. By some accounts the damage will rise to $1 trillion or more before all is said and done.
"The selloff, which at its nadir was marked by a 55% year-over-year decline in the KBW Index, pushed the constituent members down to a collective 0.64 times book value and a dividend yield of 9%.
"At those levels, either the world is coming to an end or there are tremendous bargains for investors with the courage of their convictions. Looking hard at the data, we can only conclude the latter is the case, provided you're careful with your investment choices.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we're back in the same predicament, and more bank runs could be the result.
No one did a deal. The financials rallied gigantically, there was tremendous enthusiasm, and yet no bank was ready with an offering. It is amazing, especially when you consider that the natural gas companies, like Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) (Cramer's Take) and XTO Energy (NYSE: XTO) (Cramer's Take) were ready, despite horrible declines in their stocks.
Just spot 'em right out there. For about a week, people decided the rally could - and would - last if these banks had built up some fortresses. They didn't.
And that's why we are back in the same predicament. I don't want to write here which bank is next to fail. There are enough of them (particularly one that just changed its CEO) that the FDIC will have to have a plan to keep the bad loans and sell the banks, maybe not even with the branches because all that's worth anything is the deposits.
Yesterday's Major League All-Star Game went into extra innings (15 total) before the American League won 4 to 3, earning the home field advantage when the World Series rolls around in October. Yesterday was also the day I called the bottom of our economic woes (see Will Bush throw a change-up at Yankee Stadium?).
Calling the bottom should not be confused with the end of the pain. It could get worse but I see signs of the turn, and today the market, for the moment, is up. Oil prices are down, as I write, to $132 per barrel and I do not think we will be seeing $200 oil any time soon, as some have opined.
Today's Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) earnings report set things off in the right direction. Wells Fargo: Beating expectations by my colleague Steven Halpern will give you the details, but the highlights are lower earnings, a 10% increase in the dividend yield, and a tolerable and understandable charge for bad loans and to increase reserves.
If Bush's change-up marks the bottom, then WFC is the slugger that hit the ball back over the fence. Can one report from one bank make a difference? Yes it can, if people read it as a sign of things to come. At the same time, the capitulation I describe in IndyMac (IMB) turns to dust is another sign that we may be at the turning point.